Dubois at 1/4 is a decimal price of 1.25, and that price means the market thinks he wins about 80% of the time. That one conversion is most of the work in reading the odds for Saturday's WBO heavyweight rematch at The O2, and it takes about ten minutes with a phone calculator.

The second thing the numbers show is less flattering to the bettor. At the same book, the method-of-victory market carries a bigger margin than the plain winner market. The more specific the bet, the more the house keeps. One caution before starting: every price below is dated, quotes differ between books, and none of the books quoted is confirmed here as PAGCOR licensed.

What you need

  • A calculator

    The phone's built-in one is enough.

  • The prices in one format

    American (-430), fractional (1/4) or decimal (1.25). Each converts to the others.

  • A fixed spend for the card

    Set before ring walks, which UK books put around 10:30 p.m. BST on October 17. That is roughly 5:30 a.m. Sunday in Manila.

  • A PAGCOR-licensed sportsbook, and proof of age 21 or over

    Check the license before depositing.

Converting each price, step by step

  1. Convert American favorite odds to decimal

    Divide 100 by the number and add 1. FanDuel had Dubois at -430: 100 ÷ 430 + 1 = 1.23. Yardbarker quoted -455, which works out to 1.22. The result should be a decimal price just above 1.

  2. Convert American underdog odds to decimal

    Divide the number by 100 and add 1. Wardley at +300 is 4.00. At +280 he is 3.80. The result should be above 2.

  3. Convert fractional odds to decimal

    Divide the top number by the bottom one and add 1. DAZN gave 1/4 Dubois and 27/10 Wardley as of October 8, which is 1.25 and 3.70. Oddschecker's best UK prices on October 12 were 3/10 and 16/5, which is 1.30 and 4.20.

  4. Divide 1 by the decimal price

    The result is the implied probability. A price of 1.25 gives 80%, 1.30 gives 76.9%, 3.70 gives 27.0% and 4.20 gives 23.8%. The full method is set out in the guide on decimal odds and implied probability. Each figure should land between 0% and 100%.

  5. Add up every outcome in one market

    At DAZN's October 8 prices, Dubois 80.0%, Wardley 27.0% and the 25/1 draw 3.8% sum to 110.9%. The 10.9 points above 100 are the book's margin. A sum above 100% means the conversion has worked.

  6. Repeat the sum for the method-of-victory market

    7bet listed Dubois KO/TKO/DQ 6/11, Dubois decision 13/3, Wardley KO/TKO/DQ 15/4, Wardley decision 13/1 and the draw 19/1. These convert to 64.7%, 18.8%, 21.1%, 7.1% and 5.0%, which add up to 116.6%. The same book's winner market sums to 110.9%. Splitting the fight into five outcomes nearly doubled the margin.

The line movement needs the same care. The brief this piece was written against described Wardley shortening from around 7/2. The sourced prices do not support that. They show 27/10 at DAZN on October 8 and 16/5 as Oddschecker's best price on October 12, so on paper Wardley drifted. These are different books, though, and one figure is a best price, so the gap reflects shopping around as much as it reflects a moving market.

The strongest objection to backing the favorite is the first fight. Wardley dropped Dubois in rounds one and three in Manchester in May before losing in the 11th, so a 20% to 25% chance can look ungenerous. The objection deserves its full weight. But the market has seen those knockdowns too. The 4/1 on a Wardley stoppage is the market pricing that danger, and the margin on that bet is the same 116.6% book.

What ₱500 returns at these prices

Say a reader stakes ₱500 on each line below. These are hypothetical stakes, at the dated prices above.

Dubois at 1/4 (1.25)₱625 back, ₱125 profit
Dubois at 3/10 (1.30)₱650 back, ₱150 profit
Wardley at 16/5 (4.20)₱2,100 back, ₱1,600 profit
Wardley by decision at 14/1 (15.00)₱7,500 back, ₱7,000 profit

The favorite returns little, and it still loses roughly one time in five. The 14/1 line implies 6.7%, which means it loses about fourteen times in fifteen.

When the numbers will not add up

The usual cause is mixing prices from different books or dates. The total only means something for a single book's single market at a single moment.

The fraction was flipped. Fractional 1/4 is 1 ÷ 4 + 1 = 1.25. Dividing 4 by 1 gives 5.00, which is the underdog's side of the scale.

Prices move during fight week and differ between books. Use the price on screen and run the same conversion on it.

With the conversion done, any price on the card can be read as a probability, and any market can be checked for its margin in under a minute. The one remaining question is where the bet can be placed legally, because the books quoted in this piece are UK and US operators. The answer depends on the license, not on the price. A ₱500 limit set before the first bell does more for a betting budget than any of these conversions.

Is the sportsbook on the phone actually PAGCOR licensed?

A five-minute check to run before any deposit.

Check a PAGCOR license